.id demographers reveal big risk in government’s 1.2 million home National Housing Accord plan

Australia’s perfect neighbourhood would be safe, have a good connection to the environment and affordable housing. There are fears that’s not what we will get under the 1.2 million homes National Housing Accord goal.

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The perfect Aussie neighbourhood feels safe, has a connection with the natural environment, affordable housing and good access to health services and public transport.

A sense of community, the ease of moving around, social cohesion as well as shopping and dining options also make the top 10 most important features for Australian families.

But the 2024 Living In Australia Survey by one of the nation’s biggest demographics groups has warned we aren’t getting the affordable housing we want.

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The survey also assessed how we perceive our neighbourhoods today as opposed to what we want out of them, with housing affordability ranked a 4.7 out of 10 nationwide, the lowest score recorded in any category.

Included as part of the 2024 Beyond Housing Targets Report, the survey joined analysis showing that government’s 1.2 million homes plan, under the National Housing Accord, is set to fall short on numbers and fail the key workers, young Australians and retirees it is supposed to be helping.

The new report from Informed Decision, known as .id, has warned the lack of planning around catering to specific demographics in the National Housing Accord and state government targets being forced on local councils failed to identify what communities need.

Demographers at .id have plotted where the most homes are likely to be built around Greater Sydney from 2024-2029.

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It argued governments should be doing more to boost infrastructure alongside housing, as even established suburbs were risking hitting a “tipping point” where transport was overwhelmed by increasing population.

.id economist Rob Hall said government planners needed to provide more direction, or give councils more scope, to address building to suit key workers, students and the nation’s ageing population in particular.

“There is a major challenge with key workers being pushed further and further out in Sydney, Melbourne and Brisbane,” Mr Hall said.

He noted that while affordable homes in outer suburbs could suit their often lower-paid wages, and inner-city apartments could also help, there was a gap in middle-ring areas that wasn’t being addressed.

The areas around Melbourne set for the most new homes are predominantly 30km or more away from the CBD.

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The lack of affordable downsizing options in many middle-ring areas was also encouraging retirees to stay in four and five-bedroom houses longer than they otherwise might.

The survey found people living in outer suburbs were the nation’s most worried about overpopulation, with one in five flagging it as a concern.

Those living in regional areas within 100km of their capital city were the next most worried about it, at 16 per cent, followed by middle-ring suburban residents at 14 per cent.

Mr Hall said the chief driver behind the population concerns appeared to be traffic congestion, with residents in outer suburban areas increasingly aware that further housing development was adding to their commute times and making moving around locally more challenging.

He warned that as state government’s looked to promote more high-density living in established areas, even these would run into “infrastructure limits” — something already being seen in Melbourne and Sydney’s western suburbs where public transport struggles to meet demand at peak times.

The Greater Brisbane area is also likely to see most of its housing development away from the city’s centre.

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Real Estate Institute of Australia president Leanne Pilkington agreed that government efforts to build more homes around the nation did need to be “more sophisticated”, and concerns from outer suburban residents about overpopulation were a warning sign about failing to bolster infrastructure alongside new housing.

“History can show us that when development works and when it doesn’t, and we need to learn from that,” Ms Pilkington said.

She added that the government clearly needed to provide tax breaks or some other incentive to developers to encourage affordable homes for key workers as land costs were making it impossible for the private market to do so.

Without something being done, she warned the government would continue creating situations where shiftworking nurses put their own health at risk as they commuted long distances to where they could afford to live.

The .id report also showed their projections for housing construction across the nation’s four biggest capital cities by the end of the National Housing Accord’s five year timeline, based on their data tracking available land, housing approvals and projects in planning.

The Greater Melbourne area is most likely to see the biggest number of new homes built of any Australian capital.

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Melbourne is expected to build 188,301, Sydney to cover 144,930, Brisbane about 98,100 and Perth 81,270. Combined they will produce 512,600 residences.

Mr Hall said based on their data, Australia would fall short of its 1.2 million homes target.

Their figures also show that the largest share of homes to be built in the four major capitals would be in outer suburbs, despite a number of state governments working towards shifting new housing supply to established suburbs.

Mr Hall warned that with a structural change in the way people wanted to live in the aftermath of Covid-19, particularly with more time working from home, the government might find it difficult to convince homebuyers to turn their attention inward without major incentives being offered to shift demand from its current hotspots.

“We need to be much more sophisticated in looking for ways to achieve this,” he said.

While Sydney is ahead of many capitals with a significant employment cluster in Parramatta, it might need another in the south east — and other capitals could need two or more.

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A greater focus could be directed to regional cities or secondary employment clusters in state capitals, like Paramatta in Sydney.

Mr Hall said similar economic hubs could prove important in Sydney’s south east, across Melbourne’s north and west, as well as in Brisbane’s north, as housing supply was expected to outstrip local employment opportunities in these areas.

“Unless you have employment and infrastructure and public transport, then the housing supply targets is not sustainable,” he said.

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