Big Short investor Steve Eisman on tariff turmoil: Don’t be a hero
Steve Eisman of “The Big Short” fame has a message for investors: Don’t be a hero because there’s more market downside ahead. Eisman, who’s known for successfully betting against the housing market ahead of the 2008 financial crisis, warns Wall Street isn’t done discounting worst-case scenarios tied to President Donald Trump’s tariffs. “The issue is that everybody of our social class took Econ 101, and we were all taught the same thing: Trade good, tariffs bad, trade war terrible,” the former Neuberger Berman senior portfolio manager told CNBC’s “Fast Money ” on Monday. “Now, you have a president of the United States who doesn’t seem to accept that paradigm, and people find that extremely jarring.” But Eisman, who launched the “The Eisman Playbook” podcast this month, doubts the current trade situation will turn into ” tariff Armageddon .” “If countries are rational, Canada and Mexico would come to the United States and basically beg, ‘We’ll do what you want.’… Those two countries hold no cards. Now, Europe is not much better,” he said. “If reasonable heads prevail, Trump will get pretty much what he wants.” On Monday, the Dow saw its largest intraday swing on record — swinging 2,595 points. At the day’s low, it was off 1,703 points. The Dow ultimately lost 349 points and the Nasdaq Composite squeezed out a 0.1% gain. Meanwhile, the S & P 500 fell 0.2%. ‘I’m long only. I’ve lost plenty.’ “There’s the people in the markets who are upset that they have lost money,” said Eisman. “I’m not going to kid you. I’m one of those people. I’m long only. I’ve lost plenty.” He prefers to look at the bigger picture — particularly those who have gotten hurt by free trade. “GDP is not just a number. It’s people. If you’ve traveled parts of this country like I have and you go through the Midwest and parts of the South, it doesn’t look so good.” noted Eisman. “[President] Clinton ushered in with [North American Free Trade Agreement] and the [World Trade Organization] a massive bull market that everybody around this table including me has benefited enormously from. But not everybody in the country has benefited, and what is being proposed here is to benefit those people. ” Eisman thinks Wall Street should have seen President Trump’s tariff policy coming. “He has told you that he was going to do this for years, and now he has gone and done it,” Eisman added. “Everybody is shocked that he fulfilled his promise. They didn’t take him seriously.” The wildcard, according to Eisman, is politics. “Are politicians going to be rational or not,” he said. ” In a trade war , everybody will suffer. The U.S. will suffer the least.” Disclaimer
