Fed’s preferred inflation measure falls more than expected to 2.2%

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The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of US inflation fell more than expected to 2.2 per cent in the year to August, as the central bank considers when next to cut interest rates.

The personal consumption expenditures price index compared with economists’ expectations of 2.3 per cent and July’s figure of 2.5 per cent. The Fed’s target for the headline PCE index is 2 per cent a year.

Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and fuel prices, was 2.7 per cent, matching economists’ expectations. The measure was 2.6 per cent in July.

Yields on interest rate-sensitive two-year Treasuries, which move inversely to prices, slipped 0.03 percentage points to 3.59 per cent after the figures were published.

Contracts tracking Wall Street’s blue-chip S&P 500 and those tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 both rose 0.1 per cent ahead of the New York open. The dollar index was flat. 

The Fed lowered interest rates by half a percentage point last week — its first cut since the pandemic — and signalled that more reductions would follow.

Fed funds futures covering the central bank’s next meeting in November suggest investors are currently split evenly between expecting a quarter-point and a half point cut.

Additional reporting by Jennifer Hughes

This is a developing story