How Australia’s holiday playground became its most overpopulated city
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Gridlocked traffic and housing stress are consequences when cities push past their capacity
It’s official — traffic gridlock and a housing crisis have dulled the Glitter Strip’s sparkle, with the Gold Coast named the nation’s most over-populated city.
Research pinpointing the ‘magic number’ of residents for peak sustainability and liveability has shed new light on the ideal city size where housing, jobs, transport and services operate in balance.
The nation’s favourite holiday playground of the Gold Coast was worst ranked as the most overstretched from among 655 Aussie cities included in the major study by the Monash Institute of Transport Studies.
The Gold Coast has outgrown its ideal size by about 14 per cent, the study found
The Gold Coast was sitting at about 14 per cent above its capacity, ahead of the NSW Central Coast at 13, and Murray Bridge (South Australia) at 12 per cent.
Melbourne, Sydney and the Sunshine Coast were also over capacity, risking higher costs and infrastructure strain, while Perth and the small South Australian town of Port Pirie were near their ideal population size, the study found.
Researchers from Monash University analysed cities of all sizes to determine the ‘magic number’ for a sustainable future
To determine a city’s ideal size, researchers used four well-known measures of city growth and function: capital city status, access to jobs, the mix of services on offer, and how well it’s connected.
Gridlocked traffic in Melbourne, which was also operating above capacity
The results showed cities operating within four per cent of their ideal capacity saved renters an average of $1,560 a year, or $5.3b nationally, while 44,000 more people could walk to work daily, and 275,000 households could cut back on cars.
Lead author Associate Professor Liton Kamruzzaman highlighted solutions like better transport links, more balanced job locations, and fairer land-use rules to help cities get to their “just right” size.
“When a city grows too big, the signs are clear; longer commutes, traffic jams, soaring rents, and overcrowded services,” he said.
“But when it’s too small, valuable infrastructure and opportunities go to waste.
A home in Port Pirie, SA, listed at $319,000
“Using this research as a benchmark, new cities could be designed with a population range that avoids the pitfalls of over- or under-capacity, while existing ones can be recalibrated through policy levers like transport links or decentralised jobs.”
Associate Professor Kamruzzaman said the study showed it was not about whether a city was small or large, but rather how its systems could handle the population.
The study found the Gold Coast was operating in a state of “stress”, due to rapid population growth outpacing infrastructure development.
It comes as home prices on the Gold Coast close in on Sydney, with values surging almost 9 per cent in the past year, more than twice the pace of the market leader, latest PropTrack data shows.
REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh
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September’s Home Price Index found the Gold Coast median house price was now $1.32m, the only regional market in the country where prices outstrip its capital.
REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh said it was likely local property prices would keep rising, given continued strong interstate migration.
“You’ve got lifestyle, demand, hybrid work, flexibility, infrastructure investment ahead of the upcoming Olympic Games,” Ms Creagh said.
“There have been a lot of factors really underpinning demand on the Gold Coast.”
Perth was now close to its ideal size
An earlier report by Anglicare Southern Queensland painted a stark picture of the city’s rental market, revealing “close to zero affordable options” for low-income earners or those on income support.
The charity’s 2025 Rental Affordability Snapshot revealed a “deterioration” in overall conditions over the past 12 months, with the Gold Coast the region’s least affordable centre.
“The lack of safe, affordable and appropriate housing is not just a housing issue – it’s a community issue,” Anglicare Southern Queensland CEO Sue Cooke said.
