Is Fall The New Spring? Market Winds May Be Shifting, NAR Says
Increased homebuying affordability, more inventory and fewer competing buyers may lead to a prime week for homebuyers in October, leading to conditions like a “second spring market.”
After a summer market that dragged along, a favorable market turn may be in the cards for real estate agents this fall.
With mortgage rates declining over the past few weeks, more homebuyers have expressed a desire to get back into the market through an increase in mortgage purchase applications, which recently rose by 18 percent year over year, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.
TAKE THE INMAN INTEL SURVEY FOR SEPTEMBER
Last month, existing-home sales were still pretty lackluster, down by 0.2 percent from July and up just 1.8 percent year over year, the National Association of Realtors reported on Thursday. By other metrics, existing-home sales were at their lowest August level in the last 10 years, Bright MLS’s chief economist said.
Recently, however, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun told Realtor Magazine that sales may see a rebound soon. And in a positive sign, new-home sales actually spiked 20 percent between July and August, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau and Department of Housing and Urban Development on Wednesday.
“Home sales have been sluggish over the past few years due to elevated mortgage rates and limited inventory,” Yun said in a statement. “However, mortgage rates are declining, and more inventory is coming to the market, which should boost sales in the coming months.”
Inventory was up 12 percent year over year in August and homes were also sitting on the market longer, NAR said, with the media time on market at 31 days as of August, up from 26 days in 2024. With mortgage affordability up, and the pace of the market down, that could entice more buyers, NAR said.
In the weeks ahead, more listings and lower home prices could be on the horizon, according to Realtor.com data. By the week of Oct. 12-18, more inventory, lower prices and fewer competing homebuyers will create prime conditions for buyers.
EXp Realty agent and 2025 Connecticut Realtors President-Elect Alexa Kebalo said such conditions are leading to something like a renewal of the spring market.
“We actually have what we call a ‘second spring market’ in the fall,” Kebalo told Realtor Magazine. “We see a spike of listings this time of year. Buyers are finding more properties — and more choices are always good. It’s definitely a great opportunity if you’re looking to make a move.”
Buyers are no longer at the complete mercy of sellers, Kebalo added, with inspections and repair requests back as the norm. “We’ve actually been able to negotiate more,” she said. “It feels more hopeful right now for buyers than what we’ve seen in the past.”
Despite lower home prices potentially coming down the pike in October, according to Realtor.com, prices have held relatively steady, NAR reported. In August, the national median existing-home sales price was $422,600, up 2 percent year over year, even though some markets are also now seeing price adjustments.
Meanwhile, just 2 percent of home sales are distressed (foreclosures or short sales), a historic low, according to NAR.
Homeowners have also gained a significant amount of equity in the last few years, NAR said, with the typical American homeowner seeing a cumulative 49 percent home price appreciation between July 20219 and July 2025.
“Record-high housing wealth and a record-high stock market will help current homeowners trade up and benefit the upper end of the market,” Yun told Realtor Magazine.
As might be expected, regions with lower inventory are seeing the steepest growth in home prices. In the Northeast, where inventory is particularly tight, the median home price rose 6.2 percent from July to August, hitting $534,200. However, the Midwest, which has some of the lowest home prices in the country, saw the best sales in August, growing 2.1 percent month over month.
