Live updates: RBA interest rates announcement

Join us for live coverage of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s cash rate decision and latest statement on monetary policy.

Energy rebates to distort inflation

1:44pm

The Labor government confirmed in last week’s federal budget that its energy rebates will be extended until the end of the year.

While a further $150 in energy bill relief will feel like a win for many, the six-month extension will continue to dampen headline inflation temporarily. The RBA will be lasered-focused on the trimmed mean figures as a more accurate reading of the economy as it makes its rates decision.

Household spending still going up

1:32pm

Governor Michele Bullock has previously pointed to concerning household spending statistics and the importance of its contribution towards rising inflation.

The most recent data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed household spending rose 0.4% in the 12 months to January 2025. In seasonally-adjusted terms, this represents a 1.5% month-on-month rise driven by increase spending on health, transport, and air and sea transport/travel.

Treasurer’s reveal a welcome boost of confidence for cuts

1:15pm

The delivery of the federal budget last week was accompanied with a surprise reveal from treasurer Jim Chalmers.

In his budget address, Dr Chalmers confirmed the Treasury is expecting inflation to be back within the target band by the middle of the year, six months earlier than expected.

This is very promising news for Aussies hoping February’s rate cut was the first of several for 2025.

What can we expect from the monetary policy statement?

12:59pm

The governor’s usually confident messaging in the aftermath of a rate decision was missing in February, despite the board ploughing forward with its first rate cut in more than four years.

In a statement following its announcement, the board said it remained cautious for prospects for further policy evening and flagged “notable uncertainties” in the outlook for domestic economic activity.

Inflation continuing to soften

12:46pm

Last week’s monthly Consumer Price Index update from the Australian Bureau of Statistics confirmed both headline and core inflation are continuing to track downwards.

This is a positive sign for the probability of rate cuts and will no doubt play into the RBA board’s consideration for today’s decision.

Home prices hit record high

12:28pm

National home prices rose 0.27% in March and prices are now up 48% over the last five years. Home prices are now at a record high level, with February’s rate cut having reignited buyer demand and market activity.

“February’s rate cut boosted borrowing capacities and buyer confidence,” REA Group senior economist Eleanor Creagh said. “Market sentiment has improved and buyers who had delayed purchasing decisions due to the sustained higher interest rate environment are likely re-entering the market.”

What are markets predicting for today?

12:14pm

Market expectations of a cut have been on a steady decline over the past couple of weeks, as economic uncertainties have continued to increase.

As of 31 March, the likelihood of a rate cut was sitting at 10%, with 90% predicting there will be no change from the current 4.10%

Will Michele Bullock announce another rate cut? Picture: NewsWire

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Welcome to our live coverage

12:00pm

Hello and welcome to our live coverage of today’s cash rate decision.

The board of the Reserve Bank of Australia is set to announce whether the current 4.10% rate will be raised, dropped or held later this afternoon.

This will mark the end of the end of the board’s second meeting of the year.