Make U.S. housing great again: 25-year $urge
2. Demographics drive unprecedented demand
A demographic “double whammy” is squeezing the U.S. market. Millennials (born 1981–1996) and Gen Z (born 1997–2012), totaling over 140 million people per the U.S. Census, are hitting prime homebuying ages—30s and 40s. Delayed by student debt ($1.75 trillion nationally, per Federal Reserve 2024), they’re now forming households at a record pace. Meanwhile, Baby Boomers (76 million) are downsizing, offloading homes into a market short 4–5 million units, per the National Association of Realtors (NAR) 2024 estimate.
3. A persistent housing shortage fuels growth
The U.S. faces a 4–5 million home deficit from a decade of underbuilding post-2008, per NAR and Freddie Mac 2024 data. In Austin, Texas, a three-bedroom listing might draw 30 bids, pushing prices up 10% in months (Zillow, March 2025). Canada’s shortfall is similar—1.8 million homes needed by 2030, per Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) 2024. Single-family homebuilding must surge to close these gaps, making construction a cornerstone of economic growth over the next 25 years.
4. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac privatization lowers costs
The Trump administration’s plan to release Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from conservatorship, enacted January 2025, is a game-changer. Freed from FHFA oversight since 2008, these U.S. GSEs, managing $5 trillion in mortgages (JPMorgan Chase, 2025), will cut overhead and compete with banks. This could shrink the mortgage spread over 10-year U.S. Treasuries (currently 4.1%, per U.S. Treasury) from 2% to 1.5%, dropping rates from 6.5% to 5.5%— saving $150 monthly on a $300,000 loan, per Freddie Mac calculators.
5. Mortgage innovation boosts accessibility
Post-conservatorship, Fannie and Freddie can assume more risk, reducing private mortgage insurance (PMI) costs ($100–$300 monthly on a $300,000 loan, per Bankrate 2025). For an Ohio family buying a $250,000 home with 10% down, axing PMI saves $1,800 yearly. For a $400,000 home with 5% down ($20,000), PMI at 0.8% annually costs $213 monthly; dropping it saves that amount, boosting buying power by ~$40,000—enough for a $440,000 home at the same payment (5.5% rate, 30-year term). U.S. innovations include 5/1 ARMs, up 15% in applications since Q1 2024 (Freddie Mac, March 2025), offering 4.8% initial rates vs. 6.5% fixed, saving $200 monthly on a $300,000 loan. 40-year terms, offered by U.S. lenders like Provident Credit Union (2024), cut payments by $207 on a $400,000 loan (Rocket Mortgage, 2025).
6. Federal land opens for development
Trump’s vision includes developing U.S. federal land, spanning 28% of the nation’s territory (640 million acres, per USGS). In Nevada, the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) sold 20 acres near Las Vegas in October 2024 for $2,000 to Clark County, targeting 210 affordable homes (HousingWire, Nov 2024). Builders are active—BLM’s March 2025 New Mexico auction sold 50 parcels for housing near job hubs. U.S. building permits in Western states with federal land access are up 15%, per Census Bureau early 2025 data. Trump’s “Freedom Cities” plan for 10 new U.S. towns, pitched in 2023 (Politico), advanced with a January 2025 executive order identifying Arizona and Texas pilot sites (HousingWire, Jan 2025). This bold move amplifies supply, turning vacant acres into vibrant communities.
7. Tariffs spark manufacturing and housing hubs
U.S. tariffs on foreign goods are relocating manufacturing, creating housing demand. TSMC’s $100 billion investment in five Arizona chip plants by 2025 will add 25,000 jobs (X posts, March 2025), driving homebuilding in Buckeye and Maricopa. Similar U.S. booms are eyed in Ohio (Eli Lilly, $2 billion), Indiana (Clarios, $1.5 billion), and South Carolina (BMW expansion), where job growth fuels new boom towns.
8. Boom towns emerge nationwide
U.S. manufacturing hubs will spawn housing growth in key states. Arizona’s Phoenix suburbs, Ohio’s Marysville, Indiana’s Kokomo, and South Carolina’s Greer are set to explode, per X analyst posts. Texas, with Samsung’s $17 billion Taylor plant (2024), could see secondary hubs like Georgetown thrive. These regions will lead a construction surge, boosting local economies.
9. Technology supercharges construction
U.S. construction will be an economic titan, with each home generating 3 jobs and $150,000 in activity (NAHB, 2024). U.S. tech like modular homes (20–50% faster, 10–20% cheaper, per McKinsey 2023) and 3D printing (ICON’s $200,000 Texas homes) will meet demand. A California 3D-printed neighborhood cut build times to 6 weeks from 6 months (Forbes, 2024), setting a national pace.
10. No crash risk: A stable foundation
A U.S. crash is nearly impossible. About 40% of U.S. homes (56 million of 140 million, per Census 2024) are mortgage-free, immune to foreclosure. Of the 84 million with mortgages, 80% have rates below 5% (Freddie Mac, March 2025), locking owners in—$1,347 monthly at 3.5% vs. $1,896 at 6.5% for $300,000. U.S. equity hit $32 trillion in 2024 (Federal Reserve), far above 2008’s $16 trillion, cushioning any dips.
11. Wealth-building for generations
This boom builds wealth for U.S. Millennials and Gen Z. A $300,000 home bought in 2026 with 5% down could hit $500,000 by 2040 (3% annual appreciation, Case-Shiller), yielding $215,000 in equity. Monthly payments ($1,500 at 4.5%) beat rent rising from $1,500 to $2,500 over 14 years (3% annual increase, BLS), turning ownership into a $200,000+ asset.
12. A reimagined American dream
U.S. demographics, a 4–5 million home gap, and Trump’s policies — land development, tariffs, GSE privatization — ensure a crash-proof, 25-year boom. Mortgage rates may dip to 4.5% (JPMorgan, 2025), PMI fades, and tech-built homes rise. It’s in no one’s best interest to not be a U.S. homeownership society: homeowners’ median net worth is $400,000, 38 times renters’ $10,400 (Survey of Consumer Finances, 2022, adjusted to 2025 dollars, Urban Institute). This gap — up 70% since 1989 — drives economic vitality, with each home sale adding $150,000 in activity (NAHB, 2024), potentially trillions to GDP over 25 years. Homeownership boosts U.S. societal stability—owners are 1.3 times more likely to join civic groups (Habitat for Humanity, 2023)—fostering safer, engaged communities. As FHFA Director Bill Pulte tweeted March 13, 2025, “Make Housing Great Again” — this is a wealth-lifting, durable reimagining of the American Dream.
Tim and Julie Harris are nationally recognized real estate coaches, authors, and hosts of the “Real Estate Coaching Radio” podcast.
This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of HousingWire’s editorial department and its owners. To contact the editor responsible for this piece: [email protected].
