Population boom: Suburbs where people are flocking in droves

Thousands of people are moving to booming suburbs in the capital cities, but in most of these areas it’s not overseas migration that’s driving population growth.

Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) shows the nation’s population is growing by about half a million people per year, with about 80% of that increase coming from overseas migration.

But in most of the suburbs with the largest population growth, that wasn’t the case.

The latest population data from the ABS at a local level covers the 12 months to June 2024. The data breaks down population growth into SA2 regions, which are statistical areas that typically encompass a whole suburb, a portion of a suburb, or in some cases several suburbs.

In the top five areas with the largest population increases, just 4% of that growth came from overseas migration.

Instead, most of the population growth in these suburbs came from internal migration – that is, people moving to the area from somewhere else in Australia.

Suburbs where the population has surged

Most of the suburbs with the biggest increases in population were in newly developed areas on the fringes of Melbourne and Sydney, where housing estates have rapidly popped up on formerly agricultural land.

REA Group senior economist Anne Flaherty said affordability and the availability of housing were behind the population boom in many outer suburbs. 

“There’s the creation of more housing, but the median price of a home is lower so it’s attracting more people,” she said.

This newly-built three-bedroom house in Fraser Rise sold for $647,500 in March. Picture: Getty

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The region with the largest increase in population was Fraser Rise-Plumpton in Melbourne’s north west, where the population grew by 4,316 people in a year.

It was followed by nearby Rockbank-Mount Cottrell which increased by 4,145, while Box Hill-Nelson in Sydney came in third place with a 4,042 increase.

The suburbs with the largest population increases

Fraser Rise has a median sale price of $700,000, which is almost $200,000 cheaper than Melbourne’s overall median house value of $895,000. Rockbank is even more affordable, with a median house price of $632,500.

“These are areas where we’re seeing more young families move,” Ms Flaherty said. “There’s a lot of opportunities in the sense that we’re seeing more amenity in these areas.”

While overseas migration has been responsible for most of the population growth across Australia, migrants only account for a few hundred of the thousands of new residents moving to the suburbs with the largest population growth.

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In newly developed suburbs, new homebuyers typically account for most of the residents. 

For example, 69% of residents in Fraser Rise-Plumpton own their home with a mortgage, according to ABS data – almost double the national rate of 35%. 

Meanwhile, renters account for just 17% of residents, which is a little over half the national rate of about 31%. 

Most of the top suburbs for population growth had higher-than-average proportions of people born overseas, ABS data shows. It suggests that while migration isn’t directly driving population growth population growth, these suburbs are favoured by homebuyers who have recently arrived in Australia.

Newly developed outer suburbs of the capitals have experienced some of the most rapid population growth recently. Picture: Getty

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“When people first come to Australia they’re much more likely to be renters than owner-occupiers for at least the first seven years,” Ms Flaherty said.

“When those people go on to buy their first home, they’re often buying in those outer areas where the cost of a home is more affordable.”

Real estate agent and Barry Plant Taylors Lakes partner Andrew Koulaouzos said property prices had remained steady in Fraser Rise due to the abundance of newly-built homes for sale, which represented good value considering the rise in construction costs in recent years.

An ample supply of relatively affordable houses for sale has helped keep prices stable in Fraser Rise. Picture: Getty

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He said many buyers were first-home buyers, but others had sold older homes in pricier suburbs nearby and were looking to upgrade to larger, newly-built houses with all the mod cons.

“You’ve got first-home buyers who can’t afford to buy in their own suburb so they move further out,” he said. “But then there’s also people looking to build their dream home.”

Where are new migrants are moving?

While most of the suburbs with the biggest increases in population were in newly developed areas on the outer fringes of the capitals, there were some exceptions.

Just three of the top 30 areas by population growth had levels of overseas migration that outnumbered both internal migration and natural increase (the difference between the number of births and deaths), and in each case it was by a wide margin.

These were Carlton and Melbourne CBD – North in Victoria, and Macquarie Park – Marsfield in New South Wales.

When ranking suburbs by the number of new migrants moving to the area, the data looks quite different.

High density hubs such as Carlton were among the suburbs with the most new migrants recently. Picture: realestate.com.au/sold

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The suburbs with the largest increase in population due to overseas migration were typically in high-density parts of the capitals, and were often in close proximity to universities and a greater concentration of jobs.

Ms Flaherty said the suburbs with the most new migrants typically had a much higher percentage of rental properties.

“Typically when people first come to Australia, whether they’re a student or a worker, they’re renting to live close to where they’re studying or where they’re working so that creates that demand for inner-city suburbs,” she said.

Suburbs with the most overseas migrants

Carlton has a median unit price of $420,000, while a median-priced unit in the Melbourne CBD costs $560,000, but strong rental demand and affordable prices means these areas have above-average rental yields.

Most of these areas also had high numbers of internal migrants moving out of the area, but this loss of people was outweighed by high numbers of overseas migrants, resulting in a net population increase.

Migration under the spotlight ahead of federal election

Overseas migration has been in the spotlight since surging to record levels recently.

In the year to September 2023, net overseas migration reached more than 550,000 people, but had declined to 379,800 in the year to September 2024.

Since then, the federal government has introduced several measures in a bid to reduce the impact of overseas migration on the housing market, but these have been criticised for missing the mark.

Late last year the federal government moved to curb international student numbers in 2025 by slowing visa applications.

Given two out of every five international students live in purpose-built accommodation, the change is only expected to reduce international students in the general rental market by 0.2% in 2025.

Both Labor and the Coalition are promising to curb international student numbers, but the policies aren’t likely to have a major impact on the housing market. Picture: NCA NewsWire / Luis Ascui

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Additionally, a two-year ban on foreign buyers purchasing established properties began this month, but this is expected to have a limited impact on prices because foreign buyers account for just 1% of property transactions, and only a third of those purchases were for established homes.

The Coalition has proposed limiting international student numbers to 240,000 per year, and reducing the number of permanent migrants to 140,000 per year.

Despite population data showing the potential for newly developed suburbs to rapidly house thousands of people, housing supply is still falling well short of population growth, with 62,000 fewer homes built than needed last financial year.