Watch Out for This 1 Counterintuitive Warning Sign With Bitcoin
Bitcoin (BTC -2.72%) might be one of the safest cryptocurrencies you can invest in, but that does not make it a risk-free investment, nor does it mean that you can approach it casually. What’s more, there’s some information that suggests most investors are completely ignoring or badly misinterpreting an important and highly noticeable sign.
Here’s what you need to be watching out for.
This finding turns the traditional wisdom on its head
Most cryptocurrency investors love to see it when their coins are being discussed extensively on social media. More attention means more opportunities to capture capital from investors who might have been on the sidelines, unaware of the returns available in a given asset. It’s nearly impossible to discuss most coins without also referencing recent price action, which can make online discussion a great advertisement for buying an asset immediately, either to avoid missing out, or to grab some while it’s relatively cheaper — so this line of thinking goes.
There’s more than one problem with that perspective. A coin that gets attention, even on a sustained basis, is not the same as a coin having an investment thesis that warrants the allocation of your capital. The reality is that most cryptocurrencies get attention for a moment while the price is rising, which then proves to just be a flash in the pan.
Another issue is that investors who are easily moved into making a purchase by seeing a few exuberant posts on social media will, in all probability, also be easily cajoled into selling their coins when they see a few bearish takes. So the price rise that may be created by a spurt of viral attention is practically guaranteed to be short-lived.
As if that weren’t enough, there is actually some evidence that when a coin gets discussed extensively on social media, particularly X (formerly Twitter), its price is more likely to fall than rise. Per a paper published by a pair of professors from California State University in mid-2024, after the initial bump in a coin’s price from a spike in attention on social media, sustained engagement on social media actually foreshadows lower prices. That dynamic was demonstrated in Bitcoin specifically, as well as most of the other largest cryptocurrencies.
People flock to buy coins they think are going up, because they see that the coin has just gone up. By the time they arrive, it’s too late. What’s left is their hope, which remains unfulfilled. The solution? Try to get others to buy in. It doesn’t seem to work on average.
That means you now have one new counterintuitive sign to watch out for with Bitcoin. By the time you’re seeing bullish posts celebrating returns on your news feed, the increase in its price could be in the rearview mirror, at least for the short term. And the fact that there are a lot of evangelists constantly publicly talking about the coin’s potential, even if they’re doing it over the long term, is not necessarily as positive as one might assume.
Stay focused on what matters most
The smart way to handle this information is to disengage yourself from sources of data that do not help you to evaluate the investment thesis for buying a coin.
For Bitcoin, the whole point of holding it for the long term is that it is programmed to get relatively scarcer over time, as it becomes harder and harder to mine. That process does not have anything to do with it being discussed on social media. While it’s true that attention can generate some demand, at least temporarily, the beauty of the coin as an investment is that it does not need a significant increase in demand for the price to continue to rise, as it is more likely to be in shorter supply in future years compared to prior years.
In other words, you will have more success investing in Bitcoin if you use the pullbacks generated by the hangover of social media-driven pumps as opportunities to buy the dip. That will be especially true if you deploy your capital gradually rather than rapidly, as patience will give you more opportunities for cheap purchases and diminish the impact of buying when the coin is more expensive.
Remember: There is no rush here. Bitcoin is not an investment to hold until later today or tomorrow; it’s an investment to hold for 10, 20, or 30 years, when its price is likely to be much higher than right now.
