What’s The Over/Under On How Long Trump’s Tariffs Will Remain?

Donald Trump’s tariffs are, of course, insane.

Trump may well be insane himself.

This prompts me to ask the bettors among you: What’s the over/under bet on how long Trump’s recently announced tariffs will remain in place?

In March, Trump announced tariffs on Canada, and then removed them, in the course of 24 hours. The current tariffs have already remained in place for more than 24 hours, so 24 hours can’t be the right over/under bet.

But how about the “head of lettuce” standard that was put in place for former UK Prime Minister Liz Truss? Will the tariffs remain in place for 10 days?

A couple of months?

Here’s my prediction, which you should inscribe in ink: It is inconceivable — inconceivable — that Trump’s tariffs will remain in place, unchanged, by the end of this year.

Of course, some in the Trump administration — including, at times, Trump himself — insist that these tariffs are more or less permanent, meant to create manufacturing jobs in the United States and reorder the world economy.

Those folks are lying to you.

They’re lying to you, first, because Trump has already imposed and removed tariffs for essentially no reason at all. Who are you going to believe — Trump administration officials or your own lying eyes?

Those officials are lying to you, second, because Trump imposed the tariffs in large part to attract attention to himself.  Trump will get attention when, say, Prime Minister Keir Starmer calls Trump, flatters him, and Trump then declares victory and lowers the tariff on the United Kingdom. Trump will have attracted attention for yet another news cycle, which appears to be the main goal of this administration. But the tariffs will have remained in place for only a short while.

The Trump administration officials are lying to you, third, because global stock markets are crashing in response to the tariffs. (Trump was right: He told me if I voted for Kamala Harris that the stock market would crash. See?) The stock markets consist of hundreds of millions of independent players. Unlike individuals, and universities, and law firms, the stock markets cannot be bullied or cajoled or threatened into doing what Trump prefers. The markets know that choosing voluntarily to trigger a global trade war is sheer stupidity. The markets are costing Trump and his many rich buddies trillions of dollars in wealth. The buddies won’t stand for it for long.

Most importantly, the Trump folks are lying to you, fourth, because there is no way that Congressional Republicans in swing districts are going to stand behind Trump’s tariffs into December, as the next election cycle begins. Trump won his election on the issue of inflation; House Republicans know that they will lose reelection on the issues of inflation and recession. Some House Republicans will abandon Trump, and force him to change course on tariffs, no later than December, when the next election season begins in earnest.

Write it in ink: The Trump tariffs will change by the end of the year.

What are the real-world economic implications of this?

Every thinking person understands what I’ve just written. (Many folks won’t admit publicly that Trump’s tariffs are a farce, but everyone knows it.) Since Trump is imposing the tariffs in large part to cause world leaders to telephone Trump, kowtow to him, and flatter him publicly, no rational corporation will spend money in reliance on the tariffs remaining in place for a substantial period. No CEO will spend tens, or hundreds, of millions of dollars to begin constructing a new manufacturing plant in the United States knowing full well that before the plant is built, Trump will have changed his tariff policies.

The tariffs will thus not resurrect manufacturing in the United States. In fact, the tariffs will create no lasting benefit for us at all, except perhaps to remind future presidents that blanket tariffs are a bad idea.

On the other hand, the tariffs (and Trump’s other silly policies, such as threatening to abandon NATO) will cause lasting harm to the United States. Countries will find more reliable trading partners than the United States; once those new trade relationships are established, they will be tricky to undo; American exporters will suffer permanently. NATO allies will find more reliable sources of weaponry than the United States; once those defense contracts are signed, they will be impossible to undo; American defense contractors will suffer. And so on.

I’m not ready to take the “under” on my “over/under” bet. I’m not willing to bet that the Trump tariffs will remain in place through the end of the year. December 2025 is just my outside limit.

It’s entirely possible that Trump will notice the economic pain that he’s inflicting on Americans next week, pick some country with which to negotiate, declare victory, and reduce the tariffs on that country or one of its products.

It’s possible that the political leader of Lesotho, whoever that is, will call Trump to explain: “You’re correct that Lesotho runs a trade surplus with the United States. But that’s because we’re a very poor country and cannot afford to buy your products, while you’re a very rich country and buy many of the diamonds that we mine here. It’s unlikely that the 50% tariff that you’re imposing on Lesotho will cause us to buy more from you, although that tariff is essentially sure to raise the price of diamonds in the United States. Do you suppose you could make an exception to your tariff policy for Lesotho alone?”

Perhaps Trump would agree.

Or perhaps the leader of Lesotho would go on: “That’s why, when imposing tariffs, you must consider the situation of each country and each product individually, rather than imposing formulaic tariffs on every country in the world, you damned moron.”

But then Trump would get upset and double the tariff on Lesotho, just to show them who’s boss.

I’ll have to await the arrival of the future before I can tell you exactly when Trump will begin declaring victory and reducing the tariffs, but I guarantee you this: It will happen before December 31. You read it here first.

Mark Herrmann spent 17 years as a partner at a leading international law firm and later oversaw litigation, compliance and employment matters at a large international company. He is the author of The Curmudgeon’s Guide to Practicing Law and Drug and Device Product Liability Litigation Strategy (affiliate links). You can reach him by email at [email protected].